It’s that time of year again for us weirdos who are even remotely sports fans. If you’re thinking college basketball then you’re on the right track. I’m about to share some intriguing information courtesy of some research on the interwebs and also my picks so far for the NCAA Division 1 Men’s Basketball Tournament. Hopefully this isn’t too scary of a thing for those of you looking forward to reviews and articles. Try not to make fun of me for my choices but feel free to comment. I’ve only been competing with friends and family for oh, some two decades or so.
I’ve compiled some information from several time periods- the oldest being from 2000 until this year. This first segment concerns the four current number one seeds, Kansas, North Carolina, Oregon, and Virginia.
- Kansas has been to the Tourney every year since 2000 (and actually has a streak of 27 straight years going). The lowest they have been seeded since 2000 was a number eight seed in 2000. Conversely they have been ranked as a number one seed six times since, not including this year. The only time they have won the Tourney since 2000 was in 2008. They have lost in the championship twice from 2000 until now and have been eliminated in the elite eight three times.
- North Carolina has been to the Tourney 13 times since 2000. They previously held the longest active streak of 27 straight years until it was broken in 2001. Their lowest ranking was also seeded at eight in 2000. They have been a number one seed five times since 2000. They have won the Tourney twice since 2000, most recently in 2009. They have been eliminated twice in the final four and three times in the elite eight.
- Oregon has been to the Tourney 8 times since 2000. Their lowest seeding has been number twelve in the 2013 Tourney. 2016 marks the first time they have been a number one seed in the time period. They have been eliminated twice in the elite eight.
- Virginia has been to the Tourney 5 times since 2000. Their lowest seeding was number ten in 2012. The only time besides 2016 that they have been a number one seed since 2000 was 2014. Their furthest drive in the Tourney saw them eliminated in the sweet sixteen in 2014.
Now, this next little segment takes an entirely different look at the tournament. Let’s analyze the Round of 64 upsets of higher seeds from 2008 until the present. Obviously the current 2016 tournament cannot be included as of yet.
- Nine seeds have upset Eight seeds 10 times since 2008.
- Ten seeds have upset Seven seeds 13 times since 2008.
- Eleven seeds have upset Six seeds 14 times since 2008.
- Twelve seeds have upset Five seeds 15 times since 2008.
- Thirteen seeds have upset Four seeds 7 times since 2008.
- Fourteen seeds have upset Three seeds 5 times since 2008.
- Fifteen seeds have upset Two seeds 3 times since 2008.
The next little segment deals with long Tourney runs for lower seeded teams. The only seeds taken into consideration are those that are seeded nine to sixteen from 2008 until the present. I looked at which lower seed made it the farthest in each year from 2008 to 2015.
- Number Ten Davidson made it to the Elite Eight and lost by two points to eventual Tourney Champion Kansas in 2008.
- Number Twelve Arizona made it to the Sweet Sixteen where they were trounced by thirty-nine points by Louisville in 2009.
- Number Twelve Cornell made it to the Sweet Sixteen where they were beaten by Kentucky by seventeen points in 2010.
- Number Eleven VCU made it to the Final Four where they were beaten by eight points by Butler in 2011.
- Number Thirteen Ohio made it to the Sweet Sixteen where they lost to North Carolina by eight points in 2012.
- Number Nine Wichita State made it to the Final Four where they were beaten by eventual Tourney Champion Louisville by four points in 2013.
- Number Eleven Dayton made it to the Elite Eight where they lost to Florida by ten points in 2014.
- Number Eleven UCLA made it to the Sweet Sixteen where they lost to Gonzaga by twelve in 2015.
And now that I’ve imparted a little bit of miscellaneous knowledge upon your unwilling or unsuspecting brains, I will cut to the chase and reveal my choices for the 2016 Tourney.
Play-In/First Four Games:
Wichita State W | 1-0
Florida Gulf Coast W | 2-0
Michigan W | 3-0
Southern L | 3-1 Holy Cross Won
Round of 64:
1Kansas v 16Austin Peay | Kansas W 4-1
8Colorado v 9Connecticut | Connecticut W 5-1
5Maryland v 12South Dakota State | Maryland W 6-1
4California v 13Hawaii | California L Hawaii Won 6-2
6Arizona v 11Wichita State | Wichita State W 7-2
3Miami v 14Buffalo | Miami W 8-2
7Iowa v 10Temple | Iowa W 9-2
2Villanova v 15UNC Asheville | Villanova W 10-2
1Oregon v 16Holy Cross | Oregon W 11-2
8Saint Joseph’s v 9Cincinnati | Cincinnati L Saint Joseph’s Won 11-3
5Baylor v 12Yale | Yale W 12-3
4Duke v 13UNC Wilmington | Duke W 13-3
6Texas v 11Northern Iowa | Texas L Northern Iowa Won 13-4
3Texas A&M v 14Green Bay | Texas A&M W 14-4
7Oregon State v 10VCU | VCU W 15-4
2Oklahoma v 15CSU Bakersfield | Oklahoma W 16-4
1North Carolina v 16FGCU | North Carolina W 17-4
8USC v 9Providence | Providence W 18-4
5Indiana v 12Chattanooga | Indiana W 19-4
4Kentucky v 13Stony Brook | Kentucky W 20-4
6Notre Dame v 11Michigan | Michigan L ND Won 20-5
3West Virginia v 14Stephen F Austin | West Virginia L SFA Won 20-6
7Wisconsin v 10Pittsburgh | Wisconsin W 21-6
2Xavier v 15Weber State | Xavier W 22-6
1Virginia v 16Hampton | Virginia W 23-6
8Texas Tech v 9Butler | Butler W 24-6
5Purdue v 12Little Rock | Purdue L Little Rock Won 24-7
4Iowa State v 13Iona | Iona L Iowa State Won 25-8
6Seton Hall v 11Gonzaga | Seton Hall L Gonzaga Won 25-9
3Utah v 14Fresno State | Utah W 26-9
7Dayton v 10Syracuse | Dayton L Syracuse Won 26-10
2Michigan State v 15Middle Tennessee | Michigan State L MDT Won 26-11
Round of 32:
1Kansas v 9Connecticut | Kansas W 27-11
5Maryland v 4California | California N/A + MD Won 27-12
11Wichita State v 3Miami | Miami W 28-12
7Iowa v 2Villanova | Villanova W 29-12
1Oregon v 9Cincinnati | Oregon W 30-12
12Yale v 4Duke | Duke W 31-12
6Texas v 3Texas A&M | Texas A&M W 32-12
10VCU v 2Oklahoma | Oklahoma W 33-12
1North Carolina v 9Providence | North Carolina W34-12
5Indiana v 4Kentucky | Kentucky L Indiana Won 34-13
11Michigan v 3West Virginia | West Virginia N/A + ND Won 34-14
7Wisconsin v 2Xavier | Wisconsin W 35-14
1Virginia v 9Butler | Virginia W 36-14
5Purdue v 13Iona | Purdue N/A + Iowa State Won 36-15
6Seton Hall v 3Utah | Seton Hall N/A + Gonzaga Won 36-16
7Dayton v 2Michigan State | Michigan State N/A + Syracuse Won 36-17
1Kansas v 4California | California Kansas Won 36-18
3Miami v 2Villanova | Miami L Villanova Won 36-19
1Oregon v 4Duke | Duke L Oregon Won 36-20
3Texas A&M v 2Oklahoma | Oklahoma W 37-20
1North Carolina v 4Kentucky | Kentucky North Carolina Won 37-21
3West Virginia v 7Wisconsin | West Virginia N/A + Notre Dame Won 37-22
1Virginia v 5Purdue | Purdue Virginia Won 37-23
6Seton Hall v 2Michigan State | Michigan State N/A + Syracuse Won 37-24
4California v 3Miami | California N/A + Villanova Won 37-25
4Duke v 2Oklahoma | Duke Oklahoma Won 37-26
4Kentucky v 3West Virginia | West Virginia N/A + North Carolina Won 37-27
5Purdue v 2Michigan State | Michigan State N/A + Syracuse Won 37-28
4California v 4Duke | Duke N/A + Villanova Won 37-29
3West Virginia v 2Michigan State | Michigan State N/A + North Carolina Won 37-30
4Duke v 2Michigan State | Michigan State N/A + Villanova Won 37-31
And that’s that. My (terrible, awesome, acceptable?) predictions. I’ve got the upsets, I’ve got the drama, I’ve got something that may potentially resemble some form of the actual 2016 Tourney when it begins in earnest. Let’s see how I fare. Salud.