That Big Ol’ Post of NFL Sim Stuff Pt. 1

[As Read on GIO.]

So, recently (and throughout the football season) I’ve been interestingly compiling data of an ongoing simulation-related experiment I did where I simmed every game before it was played, on the same day, and with the most recently released Madden NFL game available (for realism purposes at least). What I’ve come up with until now is…quite interesting, to be sure. The following blog is my data up until now, and though I simmed the Divisional games ahead of time once the (my) teams were set, I will do so again to possibly adjust any weather conditions to the forecast as need be as well for added purpose (realism based on date of games, even if teams differ). Now, here’s all the wealth of data I transcribed:

Pre-Season Games:

Hall of Fame Game 2013

MIA 17 – DAL 32 W

Week One Games

BAL 24 W – TB 13  |  CIN 27 W – ATL 3  |  STL 14 – CLE 32 W  |  WAS 13 – TEN 17 W  |  DEN 31 W – SF 28  |  SEA 33 W – SD 19  |  NYJ 21 – DET 27 W

NE 17 W – PHI 14  |  MIA 21 W – JAC 0  |  CHI 17 – CAR 35 W  |  HOU 23 W – MIN 21  |  KC 33 W – NO 30  |  ARI 37 W – GB 14  |  DAL 20 W – OAK 12

NYG 28 W – PIT 24  |  BUF 35 – IND 41 W

Week Two Games

CAR 23 W – PHI 19  |  DET 20 W – CLE 17  |  ATL 13 – BAL 42 W  |  SD 28 – CHI 30 W  |  MIN 12 – BUF 17 W  |  TB 28 W – NE 27  |  OAK 6 – NO 21 W

SF 18 – KC 31 W  |  DAL 35 – ARI 49 W  |  TEN 21 W – CIN 20  |  JAC 0 – NYJ 23 W  |  MIA 17 – HOU 19 W  |  GB 13 – STL 18 W  |  DEN 14 – SEA 27 W

IND 40 W – NYG 35  |  PIT 21 W – WAS 17

Week Three Games

NE 21 – DET 23 W  |  CAR 38 W – BAL 24  |  SEA 28 W – GB 24  |  CHI 28 W – OAK 7  |  BUF 28 – WAS 32 W  |  CLE 38 – IND 42 W  |  NYJ 28 W – NYG 17

TB 21 – MIA 24 W  |  KC 17 – PIT 42 W  |  PHI 35 W – JAC 3  |  ATL 13 – TEN 39 W  |  STL 21 – DEN 32 W  |  CIN 7 – DAL 9 W  | SD 21 W – ARI 18

NO 32 – HOU 35 W  |  MIN 14 – SF 55 W

Week Four Games

PHI 21 – NYJ 33 W  |  IND 28 W – CIN 17  |  DET 36 W – BUF 3  |  JAC 3 – ATL 14 W  |  PIT 45 – CAR 49 W  |  WAS 14 W – TB 13  |  NO 17 – MIA 21 W

NYG 23 W – NE 20  |  TEN 17 W – MIN 12  |  BAL 41 W – STL 17  |  CLE 28 W – CHI 17  |  GB 21 W – KC 20  |  HOU 36 W – DAL 33  |  ARI 30 W – DEN 21

SF 32 W – SD 17  |  OAK 17 – SEA 35 W

Pre-Season Results (Rec)

[4-0]: TEN, SEA, DET, CAR, HOU, IND

[3-1]: BAL, NYJ, ARI

[2-2]: CLE, WAS, DEN, SF, CHI, KC, NYG, PIT

[1-3]: TB, CIN, ATL, STL, SD, NE, PHI, NO, GB, BUF

[0-4]: JAC, MIN, OAK

[NA]: DAL, MIA (3-2)

Now, for this next portion, I am going to refrain from including all the scores- though I have the data sheets on hand should anyone wish to know a game’s particular score for any reason. I am going to do this for time’s sake however, as that would make this post more immense than it already is. Therefore, instead, I will merely record the record changes for each week, and then the final records and information at the end of the regular season, before moving on to the playoff games I’ve already simmed (up to Wildcards only).

Regular Season Games:

Week One Records

[1-0]: BAL, MIA, DET, IND, KC, TB, NO, TEN, CHI, CAR, BUF, SF, STL, NYG, PHI, HOU

[0-1]: DEN, CLE, MIN, OAK, JAC, NYJ, ATL, PIT, CIN, SEA, NE, GB, ARI, DAL, WAS, SD

Week Two Records

[2-0]: BAL, IND, KC, NO, TEN, CHI, CAR, STL

[1-1]: MIA, DET, TB, BUF, SF, NYG, PHI, HOU, DEN, OAK, NYJ, PIT, SEA, ARI, WAS, SD

[0-2]: CLE, MIN, JAC, ATL, CIN, NE, GB, DAL

Week Three Records

[3-0]: BAL, IND, KC, TEN, CHI, CAR

[2-1]: NO, STL, MIA, DET, BUF, DEN, SEA, ARI

[1-2]: TB, SF, NYG, PHI, HOU, OAK, NYJ, PIT, WAS, SD, CLE, NE, GB, DAL

[0-3]: MIN, JAC, ATL, CIN

Week Four Records

[4-0]: BAL, IND, KC, TEN, CHI

[3-1]: MIA, DEN, SEA, ARI

[3-0]: CAR

[2-2]: NO, STL, DET, BUF, SF, OAK, PIT, SD, CLE

[1-2]: GB

[1-3]: TB, NYG, PHI, HOU, NYJ, WAS, NE, DAL, ATL

[0-4]: MIN, JAC, CIN

Week Five Records

[5-0]: IND, TEN

[4-1]: BAL, KC, CHI, MIA, DEN

[3-1]: CAR

[3-2]: SEA, ARI, NO, STL, BUF, SD

[2-2]: PIT, GB

[2-3]: DET, SF, OAK, CLE, PHI, HOU

[1-3]: TB, WAS

[1-3-1]: NYJ, ATL

[1-4]: NYG, NE, DAL, CIN

[0-4]: MIN

[0-5]: JAC

Week Six Records

[6-0]: TEN

[5-1]: IND, DEN

[4-1]: MIA, CAR

[4-2]: BAL, KC, CHI, ARI, BUF, SD

[3-2]: PIT, GB

[3-3]: SEA, NO, STL, DET, OAK, PHI, HOU

[2-4]: SF, CLE, NYG, NE, DAL

[1-3-1]: ATL

[1-4]: TB, WAS

[1-4-1]: NYJ

[1-5]: CIN

[0-5]: MIN

[0-6]: JAC

Week Seven Records

[7-0]: TEN

[6-1]: DEN

[5-1]: CAR

[5-2]: IND, CHI, ARI, BUF, SD

[4-2]: MIA, PIT, GB

[4-3]: BAL, KC, HOU

[3-3]: NO, OAK

[3-4]: SEA, STL, DET, PHI, NE, DAL

[2-3-1]: ATL

[2-5]: SF, CLE, NYG, CIN

[1-5]: TB, WAS, MIN

[1-5-1]: NYJ

[0-7]: JAC

Week Eight Records

[7-0]: TEN

[7-1]: DEN

[6-1]: CAR

[6-2]: ARI

[5-2]: IND, CHI, GB, SD

[5-3]: BUF

[4-3]: NO, HOU, OAK, MIA, PIT, BAL

[4-4]: KC, SEA, NE, DAL

[3-5]: STL, DET, PHI, SF, CLE, NYG, CIN

[2-4-1]: ATL

[1-6]: TB, MIN, WAS

[1-6-1]: NYJ

[0-8]: JAC

Week Nine Records

[8-0]: TEN

[7-1]: CAR, DEN

[6-2]: IND, CHI, ARI, SD

[5-3]: NO, OAK, GB, BAL

[5-4]: BUF, KC, SEA, NE, DAL

[4-4]: HOU, MIA, PIT

[4-5]: CIN

[3-5]: DET, SF, NYG

[3-6]: STL, PHI, CLE

[2-5-1]: ATL

[1-7]: TB, MIN, WAS

[1-7-1]: NYJ

[0-8]: JAC

Week Ten Records

[9-0]: TEN,

[8-1]: CAR

[7-2]: DEN, IND, CHI, SD

[6-3]: ARI, NO, OAK, GB

[6-4]: BUF, SEA

[5-4]: BAL, HOU, MIA, KC, NE

[5-5]: CIN, DAL

[4-5]: PIT

[3-6]: NYG, SF, DET, CLE

[3-7]: STL, PHI

[2-6-1]: ATL

[2-7]: WAS

[1-7-1]: NYJ

[1-8]: MIN, TB

[0-9]: JAC

Week Eleven Records

[9-1]: TEN, CAR

[8-2]: IND, SD, DEN

[7-3]: ARI, CHI

[7-4]: BUF, SEA

[6-4]: BAL, HOU, OAK, GB, NO

[6-5]: CIN

[5-5]: PIT, MIA, KC, NE, DAL

[4-6]: NYG, SF

[4-7]: PHI

[3-6-1]: ATL

[3-7]: DET, CLE, STL

[2-8]: WAS

[1-8-1]: NYJ

[1-9]: TB, MIN

[0-10]: JAC

Week Twelve Records

[9-2]: CAR, TEN

[8-3]: SD, IND, ARI, DEN

[7-4]: NO, HOU, CHI, BAL, OAK, SEA, BUF

[6-5]: GB, MIA, KC, PIT, DAL, NE, CIN

[5-6]: SF

[4-7]: DET, STL, NYG, PHI

[3-7-1]: ATL

[3-8]: CLE

[2-9]: MIN, WAS

[1-9]: NYJ

[1-10]: TB

[0-11]: JAC

Week Thirteen Records

[10-2]: TEN, CAR

[9-3]: ARI

[8-4]: IND, BUF, DEN, SD, SEA

[7-5]: GB, OAK, DAL, BAL, PIT, CHI, MIA, NE, HOU, CIN, KC, NO

[6-6]: SF

[4-8]: DET, PHI, STL, NYG

[3-8-1]: ATL

[3-9]: MIN, CLE, WAS

[1-9-1]: NYJ

[1-11]: TB, JAC

Week Fourteen Records

[10-3]: TEN, CAR, ARI

[9-4]: BUF, DEN, SEA, SD

[8-5]: HOU, IND, CIN, NE, KC, BAL, PIT, DAL, NO

[7-6]: OAK, GB, MIA, CHI

[6-7]: SF

[5-8]: DET

[4-8-1]: ATL

[4-9]: PHI, STL, NYG

[3-10]: CLE, WAS, MIN

[2-9-1]: NYJ

[1-12]: TB, JAC

Week Fifteen Records

[11-3]: ARI

[10-4]: DEN, SEA, BUF, CAR, TEN

[9-5]: SD, NE, IND, KC, NO, BAL, CIN

[8-6]: HOU, CHI, DAL, GB, PIT

[7-7]: SF, MIA, OAK

[5-8-1]: ATL

[5-9]: PHI, DET

[4-10]: NYG, STL

[3-9-1]: NYJ

[3-11]: WAS, CLE, MIN

[1-13]: TB, JAC

Week Sixteen Records

[12-3]: ARI

[11-4]: TEN, DEN, CAR

[10-5]: BUF, CIN, IND, SD, SEA, NE

[9-6]: NO, DAL, KC, GB, BAL

[8-7]: MIA, HOU, PIT, SF, CHI

[7-8]: OAK

[6-9]: DET, PHI

[5-9-1]: ATL

[4-9-1]: NYJ

[4-11]: STL, NYG

[3-12]: CLE, MIN, WAS

[2-13]: TB

[1-14]: JAC

Week Seventeen Records

[12-4]: TEN, CAR, ARI, DEN

[11-5]: CIN, IND, NE, SEA

[10-6]: NO, BUF, GB, SD, KC

[9-7]: PIT, BAL, MIA, SF, DAL

[8-8]: HOU, CHI

[7-9]: DET, OAK, PHI

[5-10-1]: ATL

[4-11-1]: NYJ

[4-12]: WAS, NYG, STL

[3-13]: CLE, MIN

[2-14]: TB

[1-15]: JAC

Post-Season Games:

As previously mentioned, the only games done right now are timely with the actual games, though the teams in the simulation versus the actual games may be and are in fact different. The only reason the times are nearly the same is so that I can calibrate it to be as close to the weather, day, etc. Okay, now, here’s the Wildcard games that I’ve completed here… I apologize in advance with the forthcoming divisional rankings mentioned afterwards here, but I grew weary of writing the conference-non rankings, and therefore stopped after the AFC and partway through NFC ones. The rankings are still there however.

Wildcard Games

AFC- IND [11-5] 35 W – KC [10-6] 17  |  CIN [11-5] 28 W – NE [11-5] 21

NFC- NO [10-6] 28 – SEA [11-5] 42 W  |  PHI [9-7] 17 – GB [10-6] 35 W

Division Final Rankings/Statistics in Addition:

X= Clinched Playoff | Y= Clinched Wildcard | Z= Clinched Division | *= Clinched Division with Home Field Advantage

AFC E-

Z- NE [11-5] | CONF- [9-3] | NON-CONF- [2-2]

BUF [10-6] | CONF- [9-3] | NON-CONF- [2-2]

MIA [9-7] | CONF- [5-7] | NON-CONF- [4-0]

NYJ [4-11-1] | CONF- [3-9] | NON-CONF- [1-2-1]

AFC N-

Z- CIN [11-5] | CONF- [9-3] | NON-CONF- [2-2]

PIT [9-7] | CONF- [7-5] | NON-CONF- [2-2]

BAL [9-7] | CONF- [6-6] | NON-CONF- [3-1]

CLE [3-13] | CONF- [2-10] | NON-CONF- [1-3]

AFC S-

*- TEN [12-4] | CONF- [9-3] | NON-CONF- [3-1]

Y- IND [11-5] | CONF- [8-4] | NON-CONF- [3-1]

HOU [8-8] | CONF- [5-7] | NON-CONF- [3-1]

JAC [1-15] | CONF- [1-11] | NON-CONF- [0-4]

AFC W-

Z- DEN [12-4] | CONF- [8-4] | NON-CONF- [4-0]

Y- KC [10-6] | CONF- [8-6] | NON-CONF- [2-0]

SD [10-6] | CONF- [6-6] | NON-CONF- [4-0]

OAK [7-9] | CONF- [4-8] | NON-CONF- [3-1]

NFC E-

Z- PHI [9-7] | CONF- [9-4] | NON-CONF- [0-3]

DAL [9-7] | CONF- [7-4] | NON-CONF- [2-3]

NYG [4-12] | CONF- [4-7] | NON-CONF- [0-5]

WAS [4-12] | CONF- [4-9] |NON-CONF- [0-3]

NFC N-

Z- GB [10-6]

CHI [8-8]

DET [7-9]

MIN [3-13]

NFC S-

Z- CAR [12-4]

Y- NO [10-6]

ATL [5-10-1]

TB [2-14]

NFC W-

*- ARI [12-4]

Y- SEA [11-5]

SF [9-7]

STL [4-12]

Real vs. Simmed Record Comparisons:

In this brief segment, I will include any of the records which turned out to be the exact same at the end of the regular season as those of the actual team in this particular simmed season. Though they will not of course probably have won the same exact games, their records may still match up regardless, and I shall count that here.

[REC]=Real | [REC]= Simmed

AFC E-

NE [11-5] [12-4]

NYJ [4-11-1] [8-8]

MIA [9-7] [8-8]

BUF [10-6] [6-10]

AFC N-

CIN [11-5] [11-5] 1

PIT [9-7] [8-8]

BAL [9-7] [8-8]

CLE [3-13] [4-12]

AFC S-

IND [11-5] [11-5] 2

TEN [12-4] [7-9]

JAC [1-15] [4-12]

HOU [8-8] [2-14]

AFC W-

DEN [12-4] [13-3]

KC [10-6] [11-5]

SD [10-6] [9-7]

OAK [7-9] [4-12]

NFC E-

PHI [9-7] [10-6]

DAL [9-7] [8-8]

NYG [4-12] [7-9]

WAS [4-12] [3-13]

NFC N-

GB [10-6] [8-7-1]

CHI [8-8] [8-8] 3

DET [7-9] [7-9] 4

MIN [3-13] [5-10-1]

NFC S-

CAR [12-4] [12-4] 5

NO [10-6] [11-5]

ATL [5-10-1] [4-12]

TB [2-14] [4-12]

NFC W-

SEA [11-5] [13-3]

SF [9-7] [12-4]

ARI [12-4] [10-6]

STL [4-12] [7-9]

Final Count for Simmed/Real Similarities:

A) 5 Teams had the same Score in the Simulation and Real Season: CIN, IND, CHI, DET, CAR.

B) 6/8 Teams Were Division Champs in the Real and Simmed Seasons: NE, CIN, DEN, PHI, GB, CAR.

C) 13 Teams (Not Including ones that Had the Same Record in both Seasons) were only 1 Game away from having the same records in their Simmed and Real seasons- though ATL’s Simmed one includes a Tied game as well: NE, MIA, PIT, BAL, CLE, DEN, KC, SD, PHI, DAL, WAS, NO, ATL.

D) IND and KC played each other in the Simmed Season and Real one, with the same results both times- an IND win.

E) 10/12 Teams that made it to the Playoffs in the Simmed Season also made it to the Playoffs in the Real Seasons, with the two exceptions being ARI and TEN (in the Simmed Season), exchanged with the Real Season winners SD and SF.

F) Though these two Simmed versions of the games are Wildcard games, at some point, IND and KC played in both sets of Playoffs, and NO and SEA played (and will play).

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